Infantino’s House of Cards

Gianni Infantino’s impregnable position as FIFA president has crumbled in just 24 hours. His decision to secretly sell stakes in FIFA competitions to private investment firms without consulting other members or his closest allies has sparked a full-blown crisis.

UEFA, once again at the forefront of this drama, is threatening to boycott all FIFA competitions, including the World Cup. This move follows widespread criticism from various football federations, with Concacaf calling for a “full review” into FIFA’s leadership and AFC countries shunning Infantino.

Infantino’s downfall reflects broader issues within FIFA: poor judgment in handling sensitive business deals and a lack of governance and accountability. His decision to backtrack on his plan after UEFA delivered its devastating blow only highlights his questionable leadership skills.

The question now is what happens next. The FIFA Council could try to force Infantino’s hand through an emergency meeting, but this would require 19 out of 37 members to call for it. There are doubts that this threshold can be reached. Even if it does, Infantino could simply refuse to resign.

A more likely scenario is an extraordinary congress of the 211 FIFA member associations, which would take at least two months from the point it’s triggered. This would essentially be a de facto election without another candidate, with UEFA having 55 votes, followed closely by Africa and Asia. It seems unlikely that Uefa and its allies can manage to get the required 106 votes.

As Infantino faces mounting pressure, one wonders what will become of his presidency. In March, he’s up for re-election for a fourth and final term as president. The deadline to announce candidacy is November 18th, but it remains to be seen if anyone will challenge him. Victor Montagliani, Concacaf president, seems like the most likely candidate given his governance reform promises and experience in building the 2026 World Cup.

Sheikh Salman bin Ebrahim Al Khalifa, AFC president, also has a strong claim to the position. Initially elected in 2013, he’s been re-elected unopposed for four terms. However, Paris St-Germain president Nasser Al-Khelaifi seems less likely despite his Qatari backing.

Infantino’s removal is not just about who might replace him but also what it means for the future of FIFA and world football. Can Uefa and its allies convince other member associations to join their cause? Or will Infantino hold on to power until his term expires in March?

The outcome of this drama will have significant implications for global football governance, accountability, and leadership. The internal struggles within the FIFA Council are nothing new; Sepp Blatter resigned in 2015 after being re-elected just days before. This time around, Infantino seems to have underestimated Uefa’s determination to hold him accountable.

The FIFA presidency is not a normal job, with occupants often clinging to power long after they should have gone. In any other business, Infantino would be unlikely to continue in his role. But in football, it seems that only time and circumstance can dictate who stays and who goes.

For now, the battle lines are drawn, and the world waits with bated breath for what’s next. Will Infantino step down or hold on? Who will challenge him in March? The drama is far from over, but one thing is clear: FIFA’s leadership has never been under such scrutiny as it is today.

This crisis may prove to be an opportunity for FIFA to reform and strengthen its governance structure. But until then, Infantino’s house of cards stands precariously balanced on thin ice, waiting to be toppled by the next seismic event that shakes world football.