Atlantic Hurricane Season Forecast to Be Milder Than Normal Thanks to El Niño

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) has announced a below-normal hurricane season forecast for 2026, thanks to the developing El Niño weather pattern in the central and eastern Pacific. The NOAA’s prediction is based on a complex interplay of climatic factors, including warm ocean temperatures that can fuel intense storms and the suppressing effect of El Niño on Atlantic hurricane development.

However, this year’s mix of factors may lead to more powerful storms in the Pacific. The eastern Pacific is expected to see above-normal activity, with a 70% chance of more named storms, hurricanes, and major hurricanes. This forecast raises concerns about the preparedness – or lack thereof – of communities along the US-Mexico border, where increased hurricane activity and rising sea levels pose a dual threat.

The federal government’s response to this forecast is also cause for concern. Significant cuts to emergency management services under the Trump administration have degraded the country’s ability to forecast climate-fuelled extreme weather events. Staffing reductions at the National Weather Service (NWS) and NOAA have left employees “spread too thin,” compromising the accuracy of forecasts.

The consequences of these decisions will be felt for years to come, as the US heads into hurricane season with a diminished confidence in its ability to predict tropical threats. This is particularly alarming given the persistence of the climate crisis, which research suggests may lead to more intense swings in hurricane activity from year to year. A “below-average” season may bring temporary relief, but it’s essential to acknowledge that this is not a trend we can bank on.

Experts warn that even below-average seasons pose significant dangers to Americans, particularly those living along the coasts or in vulnerable communities. The old adage of “it only takes one” has never been more relevant. By investing in emergency preparedness and climate resilience infrastructure, policymakers can mitigate some of the risks associated with hurricane activity.

The NOAA’s forecast serves as a stark reminder of the need for sustained investment in disaster preparedness and climate change mitigation efforts. Policymakers must prioritize building resilient communities that can withstand the impacts of extreme weather events, rather than merely reacting to their consequences. As Ken Graham, director of the NWS, cautioned at the press conference: “Preparedness really is absolutely everything.”

The relationship between climate change and human migration is a more profound issue lurking in the shadows of this forecast. The consequences of intense hurricanes and sea-level rise will force communities to adapt, relocate, or risk displacement. This is not just a coastal problem; it’s a global one that demands attention from policymakers, businesses, and individuals alike.

As we head into the 2026 hurricane season with a diminished sense of confidence in our forecasting abilities, we must recognize the urgent need for action on climate change mitigation and disaster preparedness. The warning from experts like John Morales is clear: “Everyone is still at risk.” It’s time to take that warning seriously and start building resilience infrastructure that will protect us from the worst impacts of hurricane activity.