India’s Fragile Alliances: Rubio’s Mission to Repair US Ties

The arrival of US Secretary of State Marco Rubio in India this weekend marks a crucial moment in repairing the battered US-India relationship. The four-day trip, which includes stops in Kolkata, Agra, Jaipur, and New Delhi, aims to shore up a partnership that has been strained by tariffs imposed during the previous administration and Washington’s renewed engagement with Pakistan and China.

The efforts to bring historically non-aligned India closer as a counterweight to Chinese influence in the Indo-Pacific have been a long-standing goal of US presidents. However, the imposition of tariffs on Indian goods and Washington’s rapprochement with Islamabad created significant tensions between the two countries. The interim agreement reached in February has not yet led to a comprehensive deal on trade, leaving New Delhi pressing for a more substantial commitment.

Rubio faces the lingering impact of Trump’s tariffs, which still cast a shadow over US-India relations. The 18% duty rate agreed upon in February is far from the zero-tariff arrangement that India has been seeking. Furthermore, ongoing investigations under unfair trade practices legislation are expected to restore much of the prior levies.

The Trump administration’s approach to India created a perfect storm of anxiety about US ties, as noted by Basant Sanghera, a former State Department South Asia policy expert. However, since Biden took office, there has been an effort to reset the relationship and build momentum in areas where both sides have convergence. The appointment of Ambassador Sergio Gor, dubbed “the India whisperer” by Michael Kugelman of the Atlantic Council think tank, is a significant development in this regard.

Gor’s arrival in January and his efforts to reset ties are a testament to the Biden administration’s commitment to strengthening US-India relations. However, Rubio’s task will not be easy, as he faces skepticism from analysts who believe that the lack of a trade agreement will cloud other areas of engagement. Richard Rossow of the Center for Strategic and International Studies think tank has expressed doubts about Rubio’s ability to change the downward trajectory of US-India ties.

The upcoming meeting between Rubio and other Quad foreign ministers in Delhi next week is significant, as it marks the third such gathering without a leader-level engagement. This effectively constitutes an “unannounced downgrade” of the grouping, which was formed as a counter to China’s growing influence. The importance of the Quad cannot be overstated, and its failure to achieve a leader-level engagement undermines its credibility.

The stakes are high for Rubio’s mission, as India is a vital strategic partner in the region. A successful outcome would demonstrate Washington’s commitment to strengthening ties with New Delhi, but the lack of progress on trade and other areas of cooperation will be difficult to overcome. The Biden administration must recognize that repairing US-India relations requires more than just rhetoric; it demands a sustained effort to address the lingering impacts of Trump’s policies.

Rubio embarks on his four-day trip facing a complex web of challenges that will test his diplomatic skills. The success or failure of his mission will have far-reaching implications for regional security and US influence in the Indo-Pacific. What is clear is that the repair work needed to restore US-India ties requires more than just a cosmetic fix; it demands a fundamental shift in approach and commitment from Washington.

The clock is ticking, and Rubio’s efforts will be closely watched by analysts, policymakers, and stakeholders on both sides of the equation. His success or failure will have significant implications for regional security and US influence in the Indo-Pacific.